Dec 11

Tim O'Reilly

Tim O'Reilly

Pre-Roll Prediction

On the subject of "Don't fight the internet", Fred Wilson has a great piece predicting the failure of pre-roll video advertising:

Pre-roll ads are going the way of popups and other intrusive ads. They won't be around in a couple years. And the online video services that use them to monetize their audience won't be around either.

Because the thing you have to understand about digital media is its pervasive and abundant. There is always somewhere else to get the same thing. Digital is write once, read everywhere. Digital media is like a virus. It spreads like crazy.

So if you want to build a business around digital media, you have to be the best place to view/consume the media. Being the only place to see it is a naive strategy that won't work. You have to make digital media easy to find, easy to watch/listen/view, easy to comment/tag/share, and easy to replicate/reblog/republish.

That's the way two way media works. If you don't understand/accept that, get out of the business because you'll be out of it sooner or later.

A lovely post by someone who does understand Web 2.0.

tags: web 2.0  | comments: 5   | Sphere It

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Comments: 5

  michaelholloway [12.12.06 10:01 PM]

Been doing a lot of thinking about 'Don't Fight The Internet' and Web 2.0. Got carried away and wrote the following; but it has some corollaries back from the future to what Web 2.0 is now.

A Noosphere-sythesizer: The first Human/Cyber/Machine - the Beginnings of Web 3.0

The search engine is like what the steam engine was to the industrial revolution.

In the early years of the industrial revolution (1700's) the waterwheel and then the steam engine powered machinery that was beginning to replace manual labour. This change lead eventualy to Fords' production line, mass production and economies of scale.

A buisiness model like Fords' production line, in the context of the Information Technology Revolution(ITR), hasn't been invented yet; or has it?

The production line was the central innovation that changed the industrial revolution from a slowly developing reniasance of knowledge to an extrapolating technological juggernaut.

The production line began a doubling of human knowledge, the rate of which is quickening exponentially - this means that at one point, knowledge will double before it doubles again; a singularity, a sea-change in human history, Web 3.0 . Here's how Ray Kurzweil one of the leading edge thinkers in this area puts it: "...we won't experience 100 years of progress in the 21st century -- it will be more like 20,000 years of progress...". His estimate may well be under the mark...

An information sythesizer, a commons, a machine that intigrates humans and computers - has been developed - that can be seen as the first machine in a future ITR 'production line'.

"A Noosphere-sythesizer" (to borrow Vladimir Ivanovich Vernadskys' notion of Gaia; noos Gk.-mind- through the Fr. nous us, we; plus sphere or globe), this IT Machine consists of large communities harnessing the collective intelligence of the whole to produce Intelligent solutions to complex problems. A Self organizing information sharing Tool; a combination of 'wikis' and the 'blogs'; create individual human cognition quickly from vast data-sets one human could not organise in a life-time. (see:The Wiki and the Blog,
Toward a Complex Adaptive Intelligence Community. referenced originaly here at O'Reilly Radar)

A synthesis of many brains working collectivly on the internet with an array of search tools in a commons, creates this Noosphere-sythesizer. Knowledge is offered, edited, tested, and peer reviewed - in other words the data-set is rationalized, based on the understanding or the collective vision of the group. A solution derived through this virtual think-tank is immediatly recognized by the collective as true, or requiring a tweek here and there - in other words it's self regulating.

With study and in the very near future (2008) the proper inputs of info, or raw materials will be defined that produce desired out-puts - in essence a human/cyber/machine!

Huston, Neuromancer has landed!

N.B. I think I've coined "Noosphere-sythesizer". Also I like Us-sphere or We-sphere or Cybersphere-sythesizer too.

  OffBeatMammal [12.13.06 10:04 AM]

I realise this is a possibly a very naive comment, but how exactly is that "understanding" web2.0
It essentially says that you've got to come up with a business model that works even if people rip off your content, post it on their blog/site and never link back to you or give you any traffic - because if the content is viral and re-postable and can be consumed where the consumers are it doesn't matter how shiny your site is... the vast majority of users want to stay where they're comfortable (Myspace, Spokeo or their homepage for instance) not add another destination site to their busy day.
Sadly the only way that people are going to produce content like that is either for the love of it (but they still need to eat), underwritten by an old-skool business model that's actually making money or through product placement...
I hate pre-rolls and interstisials (and pop-ups) but I also worked with enough production companies and agencies to know that somehow somewhere someone has to pay for this stuff.
Predicting it's death may be precient but I still have my pop-up blocker set to stun and expect to be seeing pre-rolls for quite a while yet...

  michaelholloway [12.15.06 11:04 PM]

Here's an idea:

The thing that makes television work is the magic of story telling - and the fascination with the medium it's being told through - an application of imaging craft that effectivly illustrats a magical story.

Young audience are taught and are socialy conditioned to lineal thinking; the Story through magic media is mesmerizing.

Now with all things on demand; the challange is to make new again the fascination. Now, the theory goes, the forth and fifth element is introduced to the story telling experience; you the watcher adding content; and the other guy watching you adding content and adding content too.

  michaelholloway [01.05.07 06:11 PM]

For developers of new business, content should be seen as the game board, boring, usual - been there, done that - but the fun is in learning the "maze", faster, better or different than the other. If the end user can manipulate the game or application by combining tools and content in their own way, the game story takes on a new algorithm of complexity (sort of like real life).

New buisiness models should enable the end user to manipulate information or content. Link new applications in combination that allow the user to manipulate content in ways you hadn't considered. Like a socket set - no matter what size bolt you want to turn there's a socket that snaps onto the wrench. One size fits all; or in this case; All sizes fit one.

All applications should 'snap' into place like Leggo. For example: The 13 year old can: synthesize a sound he's added to a video; that plays only after his Sister triggers the motion detector; that activates the web cam; and the face recognition software; that chooses and runs the video - he knows will scare her out of the room. Or not.

  Bill [08.02.07 06:28 PM]


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