Fri

Aug 10
2007

Marc Hedlund

Marc Hedlund

Radar's Irony-Meter is Waterlogged

In case you missed this front-page news from February 2nd, here's a refresher:

Science Panel Calls Global Warming ‘Unequivocal’

In a grim and powerful assessment of the future of the planet, the leading international network of climate scientists has concluded for the first time that global warming is “unequivocal” and that human activity is the main driver, “very likely” causing most of the rise in temperatures since 1950. [...]

“Feb. 2 will be remembered as the date when uncertainty was removed as to whether humans had anything to do with climate change on this planet,” [Achim Steiner, executive director of the United Nations Environment Program] went on. “The evidence is on the table.” [...]

John P. Holdren, an energy and climate expert at Harvard, said the report “powerfully underscores the need for a massive effort to slow the pace of global climatic disruption before intolerable consequences become inevitable. [...] In overwhelming proportions, this evidence has been in the direction of showing faster change, more danger and greater confidence about the dominant role of fossil-fuel burning and tropical deforestation in causing the changes that are being observed.”

Okay. Keep the above in mind while reading these three amazing items from today's news:

Analysts See ‘Simply Incredible’ Shrinking of Floating Ice in the Arctic

The area of floating ice in the Arctic has shrunk more this summer than in any other summer since satellite tracking began in 1979 [...] “The melting rate during June and July this year was simply incredible [...] And then you’ve got this exposed black ocean soaking up sunlight and you wonder what, if anything, could cause it to reverse course.”

Canada Plans Arctic Bases, Expanded Patrol Force

Canada pressed its Arctic sovereignty claim on Friday, announcing plans for a port, a training facility and to modernize the part-time paramilitary force that now patrols the area. The announcement that had been promised by the Conservative government in the 2006 election, comes a week after Russia staked its claim to a large chunk of the resource-rich Arctic region by planting a flag beneath the ice of the North Pole.

U.S. icebreaker to map Arctic sea floor

A U.S. Coast Guard icebreaker is headed to the Arctic to map the sea floor off Alaska, as Russia, Denmark and Canada assert their claims in the polar region, which has potential oil and gas reserves [...] Russian media assert that the Healy's mission signals that the United States, along with Canada, is actively joining the competition for resources in the Arctic.

To recap:

  1. In all likelihood, fossil fuel emissions are one of the primary causes of global warming;
  2. global warming has melted the Arctic ice cap faster than any time on record; so
  3. Russia, Denmark, Canada, and the United States are racing to make a no-more-land grab in the Arctic; in order to
  4. claim fossil fuel drilling rights for the Arctic seabed.

We've spent a fair amount of time on Radar talking about energy innovation as an emerging technology we're watching closely. That's great -- but it's important to remember what those new technologies are up against. If the industrialized world sees melting ice caps as nothing more than a chance to drill more oil, imagine the market forces new energy technologies will have to overcome to get anywhere. "Crossing the Chasm" is a wholly insufficient description of the problem.


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Comments: 11

  Charles [08.11.07 03:08 AM]

So, Marc,
you don't have (any longer) a private car,
and you have given up unnecessary flights! ??

  Alain Pierrot [08.11.07 09:17 AM]

@Charles:
You should read Kim Stanley Robinson's trilogy Forty signs of rain, Fifty degrees below and Sixty days counting, plus his Antarctica.
These books, even if they are fiction, are setting the discussion of global warming at a much more realistic and constructive level than the mere reproach about transportation.

  Mark [08.11.07 11:01 AM]

The only thing notable about the above news items is that these geo-political claims of territory are heating up again (no pun intended!).


Fossils fuels, particular oil, is going to remain a strategically valuable commodity for many years to come. Increasingly so as the demand in the short term continues to increase and known reserves decline and are concentrated in "unstable" regimes. It should be noted that while oil is valuable primarily as a fuel, it is also an essential ingredient in a vast number of other important petrochemical products.

  Steffan [08.11.07 02:09 PM]

Radar's Irony Meter should indeed be waterlogged! Just last Wednesday you had a post which glorified air travel:
http://radar.oreilly.com/archives/2007/08/virgin_america.html

Charles makes a good point; it's worth looking closer to home.

  Kevin [08.12.07 01:15 AM]

These ironies are set to continue. Energy security is a major issue for many (most?) countries around the world. Russia is making a remarkable comeback as a superpower using its enormous energy supplies as a big stick to wave around which only highlights the need to be energy independent.

Then factor in our responsibilities to avert the worst of the expected climate change whilst keeping our economies growing, creating jobs and getting richer.

Trying to have your cake and eat it with only the minimum of compromises (which we were able to do with ozone layer and cfc reduction and the acid rain / leaded petrol switch) is going to be full of these ironies.

  Chris Vail [08.13.07 05:31 PM]

I am a registered Green in the US and global warming skeptic. The reason I am a global warming skeptic is ice core data for the last 400,000 years.

This planet has had ice ages for the last 3,000,000 years, due to the formation of the isthmus of Panama (which created the Gulf Currant, etc.). For the last 1,000,000 years, there has been a regular (as a heartbeat) pattern of ice ages, which are delineated by a sudden increase in CO2, followed by 100,000 years of gradual decline in CO2. The driver for CO2 levels is the ocean, not humanity, and CO2 is a lagging indicator anyway.

Our last sudden increase in CO2 happened 10,000 years ago, at the end of the last ice age, and we can look forward to 90,000 years of increasing colder temperatures, if the pattern of the last 1,000,000 years continues. Indeed, 2,500 years ago, you could graze cattle year round in Sweden, but now it is too cold; 2,000 years ago you could live in Italy wearing just a sheet, but now it is too cold; 1,000 years ago you could establish a farming colony in Greenland, but now it is too cold; 500 years ago Europeans needed to start using chimneys in order to survive the cold winters, and they still need chimneys to get through winter.

Fortunately, the global warming controversy is a political battle that means little to the environment (although messing with the ocean might be more hazardous than we currently realize; for example, opening the Panama canal may disrupt the pattern of ice ages we have enjoyed for 3,000,000 years).

  Artur Bergman [08.13.07 06:13 PM]

Steffan:

I might glorify air travel, but I use a combinaton of Zipcar, public transport and Zipcar to get around. Airplanes do pollute. But they are not currently the problem. Fixing them would not solve anything substantial.

And I prefer Bransons airlines. Where all the profits are being invested into clean fuel technologies over the next couple of years. Virgin Atlantic is set to fly one of their 747s on biofuel.

Artur

  Jonix Konios [08.13.07 10:08 PM]

There are plenty of alternative energy sources that the industry don't want to use. Our planet is dying and soon or later it will defend himself with big major catastrofies. I hope that will not happen in my time, and i hope that the global think changes and revert the situation. Money, power and allways money, is what destroy our once beautiful planet.

  Jim S [08.14.07 03:44 PM]

If you are interested in the law behind the claims this post is very good: http://uchicagolaw.typepad.com/faculty/2007/08/the-race-to-the.html

  Steffan [08.21.07 09:45 AM]

Artur,

It's very commendable that you use a combination of car-sharing and public transport to get around, but that doesn't negate any of the damage you do in glorifying air travel. That's particularly true given that you don't seem to have written any Radar posts glorifying car-sharing or public transport.

I'd like to know in what sense you think air travel is "not currently the problem". What do you think "the problem" is? Don't you think we need to address more than one problem at a time, especially in light of the fact that emissions from air travel form the fastest-growing contribution to climate change?

If Branson's airlines are more conscientious than others, and if this is one of the reasons you prefer them, why didn't you mention that in your article?

For a well-informed discussion of Virgin's environmental policies, see:
http://www.turnuptheheat.org/?page_id=11

Steffan

  Chris [01.14.08 10:00 AM]

It's quite true that global warming is unequivocal - and scientists have been saying so since the 80's, but no-one listened! Shame on us - look at the mess we've created!

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