Thomas Lord   [09.28.07 03:17 PM]

A trend towards the dissolution of nation states seems to me more likely to be a time when the most powerful nation states expand, not contract. I'd bet you a buck the U.S. will have notably more territory 50 years from now, not less. State governments will be bigger and more powerful, but they'll still be state governments (e.g., no armies, subordinate to federal trade regulations, using a federal reserve currency, current Constitution, etc.)

The only alternative is a complete dissolution of the state as a fundamental organizing principle of social order -- the "no nation states at all, win" scenario. In the conditions of such a dissolution, states like CA would not take over -- they would dissappear too.

The dissolution of states in general won't come about because a governer talks to the U.N. but rather it will come about if we fail to respond to the threat of low-cost/high-return global guerilla attacks on critical networks. Failure to respond to those issues leads either to collapse or to a complete militarization and conversion to marshal law. (That marshalization is the most likely thing close to the idea of a fragmented-US scenario. But even if that happened, I suspect the dominant forces in the resulting command would make priority #1 the rapid restoration of the union (it's kind of in the job description)).

You also shouldn't overlook the significance of The Bomb and of the military generally. These factors very much help the capitalist class in the U.S. excercise soft power. If the military power started to fragment, it would be swiftly and decisevly challenged from outside. Preventing that fragmentation -- maintaining a continuity of policing from the territories up through the commander-in-chief -- is important to just about everyone with anything to do with it.

Schwartzenegger's speach before the U.N. can be read exactly opposite of how you have read it. It could mean that the U.S. is so powerful and so coherent that even our mere governers can rise to the level of the heads of other nation states in these kinds of conversations.

Yeah, that guy whose having so much influence over things like greening? Yeah, well, that's just one of our governers. We're just getting started. Kyoto and all that are quaint but, if you'll excuse us, we'd rather actually get to work.

-t

DesScorp   [09.28.07 06:38 PM]

First off, Arnold is not your typical Republican (and many would argue he isn't a Republican at all)...second, the Constitution is the final word on the government's structure, and it doesn't allow for states negotiating with foreign governments over matters considered in the sphere of federal sovereignty. He can have "direct talks" all he wants, but he has no binding authority in those talks. And for the people that would say "well what if California wants to go their own way", well, we settled the issue of the legality of leaving the Union, with guns and blood, way back in 1865. They can't, end of story. There will be no break-up of the US, red states-vs-blue states notwithstanding.

Live Free   [09.28.07 08:47 PM]

Take a look at http://www.petitiononline.com/casec/petition.html : A Petition for California's Secession from the Federal Government

Dave   [09.28.07 11:07 PM]

Well, California was a nation for a short while -- the "Bear Flag Republic". But I have to say that California run by Californian's unchecked by the U.S. constitution scares me -- I'd move back out of California if that happened, seriously. I value my freedom to highly to put up with California's looney left being in charge.

Don Marti   [09.29.07 05:48 AM]

Dr. Phil tells splitting-up parents that they will always have a relationship, because they're co-parents of the child. And the USA will have to stay together, since the USA as a country is what owes our national debt.

George   [09.29.07 08:22 AM]

What strikes me, is that all of you alpha geeks ignore the obvious, that Peak Oil is on hand. Once the "global economy" is no longer possible, all goverment and economies will be local. However, the trip to get their will be unpleasnt, which is why you are all in denial.

In the final analysis, take a look at all of the tools you are using (like all the crap that it takes to manufacturer you newest geek toys and all the resources it takes, like the gazillion gallons of water that Intel uses to makes chips), and ask your youself, is any of this sustainable? I think you know the answer to that one...

Leo Klein   [09.30.07 11:35 PM]

Personally, I'm waiting for Mayor Daley to address a similar conference. That way he'll be staking out territory for a possible future, Central Republic of Chicagolandistan.

My Fellow Chicagolandistanis, Salute!

Chris Zambito   [10.02.07 07:36 AM]

This is not as much about the topic, but about how this topic on radar feeds into another post on the Enterprise Resilience Management Blog. I read all of these via google reader and love the interface. The radar post pointed to a book about the potential future of a fractured USA. It would be nice if books were also converted into feeds, maybe with a book index and then chapter and then I could follow a post into a more detailed analysis/opinion referenced in a book. If I thought the chapter was useful/meaningful to my thought process, then maybe I opt to donate a $1 or something to the author. The reader just seems to be a nice tool to digest a lot of information and would be nice if authors provided their data in a format that was just as digestible (and possibly profitable).

rektide   [10.02.07 03:51 PM]

even positing the feasibility of a sincere succession movement, it seems very much besides the point to me. to think of the increasingly noticable internal stresses that our States are experiencing in relationship to their federated Union as a new schizmatic fault entirely misses the deliberate dynamism that set into motion this Union. part of the design is that tension between independent representatives of the people and a greater Union to look after the greater whole.

its difficult to avoid injecting one's personal beliefs about the balances of power and which way one believes things are tipping, but I earnestly feel that any current state vector trend or derivative is far less relevant than simply being able to realize that there has been a deeply historical and ongoing refinement of the relationship of the American State to its Union, one where the relationship and stricture both builds and ebbs, and realizing that all terms are constantly and, even in very strict mathematical terms, continually being reevaluated and redefined. our Sovereign principles are deliberately very limited in scope, and almost of our communal Law has been derived from judicial interprettation based upon these founding Constitutional basises.

the only important factor discernable from this tapestry is that there are many many threads, composing many unique pictures. a State is a weave of issues that both mesh into the greater national weave, and stand alone within that state. there is enormous heterogeneity and the ability to preserve the independent character of States (while still garunteeing the freedom and independence of citizens of State's) is what makes America truly unique as a Union of States, it is our enormously diverse character and the ability of our almost countless governments to enact and practice Law in their own regional ways such that we may seek out and find a collective civil and civic betterment.

i have spent all summer travelling the western portions of the USofA and i remain as convinced as ever that the eternal silliness of a media-washed political arena, both regional and national, is an acceptable side effect for such a proud and diverse peoples, and i remain positive that we are still growing, and, even if stumbling or experiencing some very harsh knocks, we have positive magnitude in the correct directions. because of our diversity, our state-space can expand in the most manifold of dimensionalities, and in spite of crude times or repeated mistakes we are also concurrently doing an admirable probing out the interesting and positive locations in such a vast potentiation.

heres to the the perpetual Union, and the every one of its citizens that make it just so.