Web2Summit: Innovation Is Inevitable, Business Success Isn't
In many ways, The Web 2.0 Summit is a paean to optimism. No matter how skeptical you are or how convinced you are that we're in a tech bubble, it's difficult to step out of a session without feeling energized or excited about something. Yet the line from the day that is ringing loudest in my brain is one that top Radar sensor Tim O'Reilly said during his chat with eBay's Meg Whitman: "This thing doesn't go on forever." In technology, innovation is always around and exciting. That doesn't necessarily mean that the businesses out there capitalizing on that innovation (or even whole segments built on those innovations) will always grow and grow and grow.
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I would say this time of aggregation that is leading innovation rather than bringing something completely out of the blue - however, we are still struggling to pinpoint appropriate revenue model!
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Bob Warfield [10.18.07 04:43 PM]
Innovation DOES go on forever, but you have to periodically shake everyone off the tendency to follow the same path. Once upon a time most of the developer world was focused on building desktop apps. Microsoft got such dominance that everyone else fell into ruin. There was much despair. But the real innovators shook themselves off and jumped on this new-new thing called the Internet.
Can anyone even name the big business software companies before the client server revolution?
Likewise, at some point in the future, nobody will name today's client server software companies.
Innovation moves via punctuated equilibrium, just like evolution. We're nearing the end of this cycle, so it feels like a bubble--too many people doing the same stuff. The punctuation will happen suddenly, and everyone will be off innovating in a new tangent.
Who would have thought there'd be so much web innovation after the last dot.com bust?
More on my blog:
http://smoothspan.wordpress.com/2007/10/01/the-internet-first-breeds-diversity-then-conformity-punctuated-equilibrium/