Tue

Apr 11
2006

Tim O'Reilly

Tim O'Reilly

Shrink a Market!

I wrote recently about asymmetric competition in my entry Purpose-Driven Media. I pointed out CraigsList as an example of a company that was disrupting the classified advertising market as a result of its non-commercial ideals. While such enterprises do represent the extreme of asymmetric competition. Josh Kopelman explains how asymmetric competition can come from companies that are very much profit focused, in his post Shrink a market! He describes how Microsoft Encarta destroyed Brittanica's business, replacing Brittanica's $650 million business with a $100 million business:

"For every dollar of revenue Microsoft made, it took away six dollars of revenue from their competitors. Every dollar of Microsoft’s gain caused an asymmetrical amount of pain in the marketplace. They made money by shrinking the market."

Of course, Josh notes that Encarta was in turn vulnerable to the next disruptive innovation, the world-wide web (and more specifically, Google and Wikipedia.) Josh also talks about his own experience with half.com, and his new investment in Jingle Networks' free 411 service. Some other examples: Bob Young, founder of Red Hat, used to say his goal was to shrink the size of the operating system market; GlobalSpec noticed an opportunity they could drive a truck through in disrupting the existing business of the Thomas Register. (This isn't to say that an existing business can't figure out the competition and respond, as Thomas Register has apparently done.)

Still, Josh's point is a really good one. While there are a lot of "build it and they will come" success stories, where the business model wasn't visible till long after the company became successful, there are also lots of opportunities that are defined by bringing new technologies (and with them new efficiences and user benefits) to existing markets. This is a post that every internet entrepreneur should read.


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Comments: 5

  Brendan O'Connell [04.11.06 09:47 PM]

Thomas Register, now www.ThomasNet.com, maintained and increased its position by consistently focusing on their users and not by focusing on the competition.

  You Mon Tsang [04.11.06 10:02 PM]

Had this exact conversation the other day�

Watch out, there will be a lot of market shrinking in the upcoming years. The combination of open-source, commodity hardware, word-of-mouth marketing, distributed workforces, and unencumbered business models is incredibly lethal.

Go Skype, MySQL, salesforce.com (or maybe now SugarCRM), weblogsinc, netvibes, JBoss, Eclipse and so on and so on�

  gc [04.12.06 05:09 PM]

For every dollar of revenue Microsoft made, it took away six dollars of revenue from their competitors. Every dollar of Microsoft’s gain caused an asymmetrical amount of pain in the marketplace. They made money by shrinking the market."

WHAT BULL. there is no shrinking market. that is just silly

if microsoft spends $1, and its competitors are deprived of $6, that means the customers have $5 more to spend in any way they choose. there is no shrinking market, and indeed since we increase production at the same cost we create non inflationary wealth. do the math man

  Tim O'Reilly [04.12.06 09:35 PM]

GC, I think you miss the point. "The market" is not the market for all possible goods and services. In this particular case, it was the market for encyclopedias, from the point of view of the vendors selling those encyclopedias. The market for encyclopedias (measured by dollars spent, not by consumer availability or unit market size) shrank.

It's not a zero sum game globally, but it can be locally, as people stop spending money on something they used to give their hard earned dollars for. That money flows somewhere else.

  Brendan O'Connell [07.18.08 07:50 AM]

Tim , thanks for your comments. ThomasNetcom continues to respond to its users. After months of user research we are happy to announce the new www.ThomasNet.com is going live tonight sporting a new look and offering easier navigation, new content and more accessibility to information. I encourage all your readers to check it out.

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