Why Apple might not be able to get away with it anymore
Tomorrow Steve Jobs will deliver his usual Macworld Expo keynote. Rather than speculate on what he might say -- there's plenty of such chatter out there today, ranging from the well-informed to the hilariously speculative -- I'd like to concentrate on a new challenge that Apple never had to face before.
Part of the reason Apple has been able to, as Harris Collingwood put it so succinctly, "get away with it," with "it" being the sort of arrogance and poor customer service that would doom so many other companies, is that Apple has long been the underdog. While Microsoft enjoyed monopoly-level market share in the key operating system and office-suite markets, a smaller and quicker Apple could nibble around the edges of Redmond's dominance. No one roots for Goliath.
What if Apple isn't the underdog anymore? Vista hasn't made Microsoft any less vulnerable. Apple has a lock on the current-generation handheld-device market and Net Applications maintains that the Macintosh market share, once hovering around 2 percent, is now heading toward 8 percent. That still leaves Microsoft with a huge percentage of the pie, but much published studies suggest that Apple's market share is growing, and some of the studies make it appear as if that growth is accelerating. The promised "halo effect" of the iPod has indeed materialized. Apple is not the leading PC maker, but it's far stronger than it was just two years ago. And if we are moving toward a device-centric, rather than PC-centric, future, there's no question Apple is the leader. Being the leader means customers look at you differently. People expect more and settle for less.
Radar's Nat Torkington has a smart take on this. (He's away on vacation, so I'll quote him.) "Success breeds risk of failure," he writes. "Some alpha geeks are turning away from Macs. Not all, but some. The reasons they cite are quite reasonable: It has surprisingly flaky hardware, many Genius bars are impossible to use because the wait lists are a day long now, and the base apps aren't perfect by a long shot."
Indeed, popularity opens Apple to new threats. For example, a larger market share makes it a more attractive target for virus and worm writers. But the biggest threat might be from Apple's most ardent supporters. Apple is famous for products and services that "think different," as its old ad slogan goes. But once something moves from the edges to the mainstream, it's not different anymore. It's the status quo. Is there anything tastemakers, in culture or technology, revolt against more than the status quo? Regardless of which rabbits, real or perceived, Steve Jobs pulls out of his hat at Macworld tomorrow, the middle of the road is a dangerous place to be when there's traffic coming from all directions.
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Poor customer service? Um, since when? Here's Consumer Reports list of the best Tech Support from computer companies from Jan 2006 to June 2007:
Apple
Dell
eMachines
Gateway
HP
Sony
Compaq
First of all, Apple is a company. It's not a cult, it's not a clique, it's not a conspiracy. Second, while I have had problems with Apple products, I have never had problems with Apple service which is second to none. Third, the slant of your writing suggests you are either a shill for MS or a troll for hits. If the latter is so, congratulations, you're a success.
Richard Wrote: "Third, the slant of your writing suggests you are either a shill for MS or a troll for hits"
Shill for Microsoft/$$$.
What are 'alpha geeks' doing waiting in line at the Genius Bar (other than looking for work)?
moving towards 8% of the market hardly positions one as being in the mainstream.
I like the way you just throw out this idea of Apple's "arrogance and poor customer service" as if it's an obvious fact. On what do you base this accusation? Where is your cited support for this argument? Apple is consistently the top dog among customer satisfaction surveys, by a rather large margin. How does that translate to poor customer support? Long lines at the genius bar? Are you serious? What other PC OEM even HAS genius bars that you can walk up to and get face-to-face support like Apple? Give me a break.
As to Apple's arrogance, it is only outdone by the arrogance of tech pundits like yourself with their holier-than-thou assumptions that they are smarter than the companies they cover.
Let me ask you a question, Mr. Guterman, using the same grade-school and fatuous foundation for my argument as you have used in this article... Have you stopped beating your wife?
It's stuff like this that encourages people to trust no one. Instantly recognizable as bull. It's number 36 on the list of ways to ensure the downfall of civilization.
Time to grow up folks.
I think Apple will get away with for some more time. For people who work professionally with computers Mac OS X is often the far better choice than Windows whatever. The best computer I have worked with is an iMac and there is still potential to get better.
I don't mind you writing articles Mr. Guterman, but you are just throwing around baseless allegations here. What evidence do you have that arrogance and poor customer service is becoming the norm at Apple? I sure haven't experienced that. You back up none of your claims except quoting some dude named Nat who nobody's ever heard of.
Then all this talk about tastemakers and kool-aid is just sensationalism. I don't use Macs and Mac OS X to be on some kind of imaginary cutting edge. I use them because I like the overall combination of hardware and software and ease of use. If somebody else came along with a superior combination of hardware and software and ease of use, I would definitely consider them.
Is that such a hard concept to understand?
P.S. Your spam verifier is by far the most difficult to read that I have ever encountered.
A two year old article (think of all the things that has happened to Apple and have come out of Apple in the last two years) which basically says that other companies wish they could be like Apple...and then gives "the rules" to do exactly that. Interesting.
standard banalities disguised as analysis regurgitated over and over.
Tech Analysts are worse than the political one. Once they get wrong. they move on to the next pablum.
The content in this article is well hidden by a thick layer of anti-apple opinion, but I think Mr Guterman is trying to say that Apple's public perception will change as their market share increases, and that this will work against them.
Steve Job's mission has always been to build the computer/music player/phone for "the rest of us". The products are designed for the mass market, not for alpha geeks.
Apple has achieved considerable experience with high market share in the music player space and they seem to be doing rather well with customer support there.
My opinion is that Apple's recent growth is likely to be due in part to the quality of its end-user experience - including support - relative to that of other manufacturers.
I'm sorry but this article falls well short of the standard we've come to expect from O'Reilly radar. It reads more like Dvorak than informed comment.
Apple is where it is today due to OS X, iPod and a far better understanding of what people want.
I've not been thrilled with the hardware problems I've had with my MacBook, however the tech support both through AppleCare and at the Apple Store have been excellent.
The label underdog does not imply except only if you look at computing from a Windows-centric perspective. So already your article is flawed.
Now go back and reboot your computer...and try again...
Obviously, as Apple moves from "beleaguered" underdog to be a stock market behemoth with solid market share in multiple markets, people will change the way they look at Apple.
But as long as Apple keeps doing what they do best: making products that have significant customer value (namely, innovative, easy-to-use, life-enhancing, and stylish); providing good customer service (stores, online, and phone); and managing well the company brand, they will keep "getting away with it."
And despite what Jimmy says, there is no evidence that Apple has stopped doing what they do best.
Apple's Genius Bars may be overloaded, but no other computer company has even tried. Apple definitely wants to be a friend to their customers, as far as that can be possible and still make a fair profit to live another day.
Still, the writer might have a point if Apple's customers had anywhere else to go. We have three choices: Stay with Apple, go to Linux, or visit the Windows gulag.
If you can live on open source software alone, and can live with a lot of sharp edges, Linux is a fine choice. But if you need commercial software, or you like smoother design, the choice is between Apple and Windows.
Nowadays, Apple's commercial software is a great deal better than Windows, and from the ground up it's just plain nicer to use. Even if it becomes uncool, nothing's as uncool as Windows. So by default, it's still cool.
D
Apple doesn't have to get away with "it" to continue to succeed. They just need to be creditably better than their competition in the arenas where the average customer notices. So their hardware is flakey - is it any more flakey for the normal consumer than a Windows box put together from whatever parts some PC company could find from the cheapest bidder? So their iPod is expensive - is the perceived value in the overall experience better *for the average user* than for any other (read Zune or other third party) media player?
The personal computer, qua innovative device, is pretty much finished. It does what most people want from it well enough. Now the shift is to what makes the experience of using the PC-like object better. My assumption is that there are many other devices out there (PVRs, TVs, toasters, etc.) at a similar place in their conceptual life-cycle (i.e., they do everything the normal consumer wants well enough), and as long as a company like Apple, who puts user experience above everything else (well, other than profitability) is out there, they will continue to gain market share in these mature markets by making these items *better to use*.
The point of this (which all open source guys should be getting) is that all products go through a "commoditization" life-cycle, just like a normal product life-cycle. In the beginning, even people developing the product don't know what they want from this product. In this stage, "worse is better" - a thousand flowers must bloom to sort the ones that look pretty from the weeds. This is followed by concept freeze, where everybody has agreed on the rough details of what the product should be and where it lives in the wider ecology of products. Here blooms the network effects and connections to other products in close ecological niches. "Worse is better" is still the watchword here, but in the connections, not in the main product. Next comes maturation, where other points of evaluation (other than newness and features) come into play. At this point, worse is not better. Finally comes commoditization , where everyone agrees what the thing is, where it lives with respect to other products, and the quality and methods of use are standardized. Again, "worse is not better" here - in fact, doing nothing except improving production efficiencies is usually better. Finally comes replacement, where the product ecology niche is subsumed or whittled away at by a replacement product. Here, investing any money on the old technology is usually a bad idea. Finally comes obsolescence with declining production where, again, investing any effort on any product change is inadvisable.
So, in closing, "worse is better" until it isn't anymore, when "better is better", until it isn't anymore, when "effort focused to production efficiency is better", until "doing nothing is better". Most of the technological devices introduced 10-20 years ago (like PC's, portable music players, etc.) have reached the third stage, where "better is better" and companies like Apple can thrive. If you don't like this, the best thing you can do is to try to build new devices in *new product categories* that replace or split current product categories.
Jimmy Guterman: You don't know much about Apple, Macs, or Mac culture, do you?
Read Daring Fireball (John Gruber, http://daringfireball.net ) for a month to get a clue and then do some research before bloviating — please.
O'Reilly prints Apple tech books, why don't you have some serious conversations with those authors?
Shame on ya.
Gaining market share doesn't seem to have hurt Toyota nor rendered obsolete its philosophy of creating quality vehicle. Neither Apple nor any other human-based organization is measured against "perfect"; they are measured against the competition and the possible.
To the degree that Apple's success inspires competitors to make a better product there may be hazard. Toyota certainly woke up GM, but that hasn't changed the momentum just yet.
Gaining market share doesn't seem to have hurt Toyota nor rendered obsolete its philosophy of creating quality vehicle. Neither Apple nor any other human-based organization is measured against "perfect"; they are measured against the competition and the possible.
To the degree that Apple's success inspires competitors to make a better product there may be hazard. Toyota certainly woke up GM, but that hasn't changed the momentum just yet.
In defense of the post against the "hey don't bash Apple" comments....
The take-away I got was a case-study in marketing. Apple has built brand around being the underdog. Uh-oh. "We're #2. We try harder," works until you ain't #2. That's a really nice real-world case study of stuff that text books talk about.
His mentions of nascent gripes against Apple are more or less common knowledge among a lot of thought leaders, judging by the sources I read. It isn't saying that Apple is doing a completely "cr*ptastic" job -- just that those are good guesses of where the soft spots are that, if the marketing isn't turned around, can trigger backlash.
Apple's fans might well be the weak link, if Apple lives in an echo chamber that hears nobody but them. I don't suspect that they do, but, it isn't an open and shut case.
-t
There is another phrase to describe Apple "cult members" or "fans". It's mindlessly simple, really (and it seems somewhat outside the grasp of many consumers, specially PC users): SATISFIED CUSTOMERS!
And the purported Alpha-geeks leaving Apple... to go where? Linux, Vista? You have got to be joking!!!
Facts are that millions of Linux PCs, especially in the ultra-portable space, will be sold in the United States during 2008. While Apple may have been making progress in gaining market share during 2007, that also happens to be great for Linux adoption as it forces software vendors to consider support for more than a single OS.
Apple will never be able to single-handedly compete against a swarm of Linux competitors. Increasingly the competition for the desktop will shift from Windows vs Apple to Windows vs Linux, with Apple and its *nix roots actually helping wean more people off the Windows platform.
This has to be the most ignorant article I have ever read about Apple and Macintosh. I have run Apples at home since my first Apple II. Apple hit a ditch about 10 years ago, but now has climbed out of it quite successfully. I am forced to use Vista at work, and, in my opinion it is far inferior to OS X Leopard (actually the "upgrade" from XP was a major headache). I have never had any problems getting help on the few occasions I have had trouble with my Mac; I have had two Dells die on me in the past 2 years with NO significant support from Dell. Please, run Mac for two months (it will take you a month just to realize you don't have all those annoying popups every two seconds) and then try a rewrite.
I'd like to know what bad experiences you've had with Apple support, as all my experiences have been pretty good. Consumer Reports surveys often show high satisfaction with Apple support as well. How long have you been using Macs for?
I have actually had a couple hardware problems with Apple machines, but I've had similar problems with PCs too, and Apple support pretty quickly got my issue fixed. Having worked with both PCs for over 10 years, and Macs for around 5, I have to say I have been more satisfied overall with both the support and hardware on the Mac side.
In general, my Windows boxes have lots of little quirks (e.g. one of my XP machines has to have its sound card driver re-installed periodically because it stops working, printer communication issues, etc.) and getting support is an issue of being bounced around between vendors. I've had experiences like this pretty regularly throughout my years of using PCs, and with Macs it has been quite refreshing not to have to deal with those frustrations.
That's not to say that Macs don't have their problems. Leopard could still use some polish, for example, but on the whole I just find that Apple just provides a better user experience.
Woah, remind me to never tell cult members their holy leader may be flawed. I'm surprised these talkbackers haven't built a SWF effigy of Guterman yet.
I'm writing this on a MacBook Pro which is probably the best computer I've ever owned. OS-X with a dual core CPU just screams - industrial strength. But prior to OS-X they were just an also ran.
Still, Mac service?
You can't get an Apple hardware service contract past 3 years. My last Mac failed at 3.5 years - would have cost me $850 for a mother-board replacement. Sold it on ebay to a guy who knew that Apple's poor quality control had shipped a bunch of systems with weak solder joints on the CPU - he reflowed the CPU and had a good system.
Then again I have a Mac tower which is 7 years old, a little slow but usable - but, as noted above, I can't buy a service contract for - Apple won't sell me one (I've asked, and complained). I would prefer to have a contract - don't ask me to justify why - I just would.
Finally - last week I bought a video docking station for my IPod - it had all the 'Apple approved' labels - made for iPod and all that. It was junk - you would have to braindead to put your trademark on it. I dug up the Apple corporate customer service number to let them know about this junk - they could have cared less. I even offered to ship it to them for their evaluation - they didn't even want my contact information.
Jimmy - you're dead on - Apple may not be able to get away with 'it' anymore - at least, not much longer.
"Some alpha geeks" is about as useful a term as “some Democrats” or “some government officials” in political reporting. It allows the writer to project his (or those of one or two friends) onto a faceless unnumbered group of disaffected people, none of whom are quoted and whose complaints are delivered without any context.
Taking these gripes in order:
Flaky hardware has not been much of an issue for me: I have had drive failures but Apple doesn’t make drives. Everything else has worked pretty well, even this obsolescent iBook.
Genius Bar access has never been an issue for me: you can sign up online to make an appointment and get one same day, I expect, or if you are a Pro user, you can leverage that priority system. And these are supposedly the cool kids who don't know this?
By the base apps, I assume the iLife and iWork suites are what’s meant. I didn’t realize there was any perfect software: I’d like to know about it if there is. But for the price of those suites, I think they offer pretty good value and if the alpha geeks are all that, where are the development efforts that will meet their needs?
My read of this is that they don’t match the functionality of the Office suite. I wouldn’t be at all surprised to have the same “alpha geeks” claim that the bloat and excess of features of the Office suite was one of the reasons for switching. And if there is a market for better apps, they should maybe address that or convince someone else to scratch that itch.
This was a pretty lame attempt at commentary: if this is the extent of critical analysis O'Reilly provides, I'd sooner bet against them than against Apple.
to Rick Bazzara,
Just read what peoples are saying and realise the meaning of it. The're supportives of what are for them real good products. Bitching for bitching, your life must be very sad.
Your prediction of 8% of the market share will probably happen, but I think that this number does not reflect that the market size has evolved.
If someone could provide the number of active devices (Macs, iPhones) per capita irrespective of internet connectivity, I think this would put some perspective on these percentages.
"arrogance and poor customer service"
Do you have some research to back up that statement? Is Apple arrogant? How is Apples custormer service? Is it a myth your spreading here ?
That's the weirdest thing I've ever read. Poor customer support when it's really best of class? Alpha Geeks asking Genuises for help?
Article not worthy of oreilly.com.
I will defend the author! In my experience Apple support has been very poor. Regardless of statistics. In my personal experience over poast 3 years - various machines broken within days of purchase go on multiple return trips to be fixed. Just r*e*p*l*a*c*e it thanks. Dell always have replacement or new part next day before 9.30 - Years after purchase. And someone answering a phone too.
None - and I mean NONE - of my iPods has lasted any time at all and my favoured 12" laptops disk, memory and battery are all on version goodness-knows-what.
I do think Apple rely on exactly what this articles comments seem to provoke - almost fanatical defense like soldier ants at anything even questioning their belief in their chosen ones baby!
I like Apple products and thank goodness they exist simply for the sake of competition and innovation. However, stop pretending they are above criticism! BTW: look at these responses - want to know why they top the satisfaction surveys...?
Now the alpha-geeks comment - that surprises me. Everyone I know who has ever had a terminal open on a Mac appears to be an expert and would never dream of asking for help.
@Chris Lamb: People defending Apple are irrational, while suggesting that a few anecdotes trump statistics is perfectly rational. Sure.
Poor customer service? I am not a fanatic but I have a lot of friends that have Macs and none of them or I have had poor customer service. Apple has cool stuff that is why the "get away with it".
As sloppy as Leopard has been (I myself have had a startlingly serious bug that was not fixed until my THIRD call into Applecare) overall my time with the Mac has left me happy.
As a designer, its nearly essential
I think that what the author here is saying has the POTENTIAL to be true. I dread Apple gaining 50% US PC marketshare and then turning into a company that rolls out generic products with low quality components coupled with no regard for its customers, but this is something that is not realistic to talk about for quite a few years, if indeed it ever comes to that point.
Although I understand what you are trying to say, I dont think Apple's arrogance is currently misplaced.
@Chris Lamb: Dude! You're supposed to put your iPod in your pocket, not drag it along the ground after you! :-).
Look how the iPhone/iTouch update underperforms compared to "the Installer", see that Apple is losing the "defining force" on their products. Alpha geek swarm is coding faster than Apple due to numbers.
If one writes an article with the claims that Bosh or Phillips is getting away with "arrogance and poor customer service". Would we not expect something to support the claim that they are arrogant and have a poor customer service. I am not claiming that Apple does not have a poor customer service, or that they are not arrogant. I just don't see it a being in any way evident that they are. I am getting used to this kind of unsupported radical statements about Apple, but I am disappointed to find it here at O'reilly. Especially because I think that what Jimmy is spreading here a the stereotype myth set forth about Apple. But I could be wrong, I would find it interesting to see some statistics to substantiate the claims.
Also I find that it is a bit sad that Jimmy Gutterman, does not answer any off the comments to his own blog. Does not have to be mine, but it is nice to see that one takes an interest in the reactions to what one has written.
Typical. The one journalist on Radar posts a journalistic kind of article.
This article was not worthy of Radar.
I own plenty of Apple products, both personally and professionally and have never had a problem until today. Without going in to much detail; I have a Cinema Display in which the LCD Module is going out. I called Apple Care and was informed by the Apple service tech to take the unit to a preset appointment he was going to make for me at my neighborhood mac store. I thought this a bit odd since last time I had my other display repaired I just mailed off to the repair center in a prepaid apple box. Very nice and easy, typical apple. Upon arrival at the store I found out that no such appt. was ever made and was told to return home with the display and re-contact Apple Care Customer Support.
This ensuing phone call was one of the most poorly handled I've experienced. After a 2 1/2 hour wait and run-around I was finally told that this product would not even be covered by my Apple Care warranty. I then asked to file a complaint about the poor service and the 4 hour ordeal that had taken place. The 2nd tier tech informed me that there was no way of knowing if my complaint would be taken care of; only that the original tech's daily report log would be flagged. I was then told if I need further satisfaction to write to cooperate HQ.
Where are their customer service, customer care, or quality assurance people that all other major corp's have????
I challenge you to call and try to speak to 2nd tier tech's supervisor, its mission impossible.
Disgruntled!
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Michael H [01.14.08 10:18 AM]
Apple being able to get away with "it" for so long - the reality distortion field/cult of Mac probably doesn't hurt.
It's kind of interesting because I've been thinking of buying a Mac for the first time. For work and at home I use a variety of PCs running XP, Vista, and Ubuntu. Since Macs are few and far between at work, there is no need to support them. However, I'm working on my Master's degree (in English), I could use a personal laptop, and being a computer tech as a job, getting a Mac would improve my skill set.
Still, I look at the prices, and can't decide if the "value" is worth it. I've never swallowed the kool-aid and the few time's I've dealt with Macs I've always come away glad I don't own one. OTOH, expanding the skill set, new experiences, etc, are at least making me look at them. I'll wait until after Jobs' speech to make any decisions though.