Is Adobe Still Sleeping Well?

Last May, Tim O’Reilly posted a piece on whether or not Adobe was worried about the new threat to their dominance in the RIA space by the introduction of Silverlight from Microsoft. In a nutshell, the answer was no. From a book sales perspective, that was true and remains true today. But there is more to that answer than what appears at face-value from data on book sales.

Silverlight 2 is the product that Microsoft is backing in the RIA race. That in itself is worth, at least, some restless nights. Silverlight has not become a publishing event. At the present time, there are 10 Silverlight books published yet only one is on the current release and is truly a 2 book because it offers free, or paid, updates all the way through to a FCS launch.

But it does appear as though Silverlight is gaining some ground on Adobe. At least on Search volume. The image below shows the Google Trends for these technologies

silverlight [blue]
adobe flash [red]
adobe flex [orange]
adobe air [green]
silv_flex_air_flas.png

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp A.&nbsp &nbsp Adobe AIR Puts Companies on Desktops

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp B. &nbsp &nbsp Adobe Introduces Adobe AIR, Adobe Flex 3 Software

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp C. &nbsp &nbspNokia to bring Microsoft Silverlight to mobiles

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp D. &nbsp &nbsp Microsoft reveals new content partners, DRM for Silverlight

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp E.&nbsp &nbsp Microsoft to highlight Silverlight, ‘Oslo’ at show

&nbsp &nbsp &nbsp &nbsp F. &nbsp &nbsp Onstream Media Debuts Microsoft Silverlight Webcasting Service

So the long and short of this is that Silverlight is likely not causing Adobe to lose sleep at night, but rather giving them one of those a rough, restless nights … knowing that soon Microsoft will launch a credible product aimed squarely at them.

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  • MySchizoBuddy

    Silverlight is silverlight and i dunno of any other alternative names for it
    Adobe Flash is also called just Flash
    Adobe Flex is also called Flex.

    So these charts are underestimating Flash and Flex and accurately represent Silverlight.

  • http://codeazur.com.br/ Claus Wahlers

    “But it does appear as though Silverlight is gaining some ground on Adobe. At least on Search volume”

    If i look at the chart i see the opposite: “Adobe Flash” showing growth, about to surpass 20, while “Silverlight” bobs up and down at around 5. But then again i missed most of my statistics classes back in university so i might miss a point.

    Also, +1 to MySchizoBuddy, although just “Flash” surely yields a lot of false positives (probably much more than “Silverlight”).

  • http://www.pingmycompany.com Qurratulain

    Silverlight is though gaining populairty over Flash and Flex but Adobe as a whole is still far ahead!

  • http://www.mymeemz.com Alex Tolley

    Certainly looks like the search volume for Silverlight has reached a plateau, whilst Flash continues to steadily increase.

    However, I think your conclusion is broadly correct.

  • Gek Hua

    I love Flash and Flex.
    Let’s hope history does not repeat itself when IE overthrew Netscape completely out of the scene …

  • Gek Hua

    I love Flash and Flex.
    Let’s hope history does not repeat itself when IE overthrew Netscape completely out of the scene …

  • MySchizoBuddy

    more surprisingly is really low volume of Adobe Flex compared Silverlight, considering Flex is the more mature platform of the two.

  • nouman anveed

    I love Flex and Flash. Microsoft is new to RIA era and will take long time to make Flash designers and developers to please with its products. Ofcourse, Flash platform is going to rock the future.

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    2. Low cost high quality.
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  • Ernesto Silva

    As a Flash programmer, I always begin my searches with the “ActionScript” word.